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Betting on the 2017 Australian same sex marriage postal survey

AFTER years of debate and lobbying, the Australian Federal Government will avoid passing legislation on same sex marriage until gathering the official opinion of the country in a postal survey.

The same sex marriage postal vote won Australian High Court approval on Thursday, September 7th and will take place over the next month as more than 16 million ballot papers will be sent out to Australian citizens.

Same sex marriage

The survey will ask one question: “Should the law be changed to allow same-sex couples to marry?” Yes or No.

The survey is in no way legally-binding and will basically work as a very expensive opinion poll.

An opinion poll that punters believe the ‘YES’ campaign will win.

Punters looking to cash in on the fight for same sex marriage have three interesting markets to choose from.

Same sex marriage postal survey odds and betting

Asking a simple question of which result will be received from the survey, Sportsbet is offering $1.60 for ‘YES’ and $2.20 for ‘NO’.

Same Sex Marriage Sportsbet

At this stage, the $1.60 looks like real value from the bookmaker.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has publicly supported the ‘YES’ campaign, as has the opposition, major newspapers in each state and the country’s most popular sporting codes like NRL, AFL and Cricket.

Sportsbet reports that 62% of the money has been for ‘YES’-related bets.

“If the sentiment from our customers is any guide, the Yes vote will be the winner in the postal vote and it’s becoming more and more apparent every day,” said’s Christian Jantzen.

Betting on how many votes will be cast in same sex marriage postal survey

How many of the 16 million Australians over the age of 18 will actually vote?

At Sportsbet you can bet on that number.

It’s the complicated issue that every Australian has an opinion about – but how many will make the effort of filling out the survey and mailing it back to the Australian Bureau of Statistics?

Sportsbet has between 9-10million as the $4 favourite, while 10-11million is at $4.50. If you think that significantly-less than 50 percent of the population, 5-6million, will vote, you can get as much as $12.

SSM Votes

How many people will support same sex marriage?

So you’ve had a punt on who will win the survey and how many Australians will cast their vote – but what percentage of those votes will be for ‘YES’?

SSM percentage

Again, these Sportsbet markets swing heavily in favour of a win for the ‘YES’ campaign.

A 50-59.99% vote for YES is the favourite in this market at $2.50, but if you think the win will top the 60 per cent mark, you can get $3.20. If you think the ‘NO’ campaign can get an upset win, you’ll get $3.50 on the ‘YES’ vote only picking up between 40-49%.

What are the key dates of the Australian Same Sex Marriage survey?

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