Australian F1 Grand Prix preview & betting tips – April 2, 2023

Formula One returns to Melbourne this week for the 2023 Australian Grand Prix, where Charles Leclerc and Ferrari will be looking to defend their title this Sunday.

The first two races of the 2023 season have had F1 pundits asking the same questions, the biggest of which: can anyone stop Red Bull Racing? Red Bull have powered out of the gates – their car seems to have gone up another gear, leaving the rest of the paddock in its wake. Their lead drivers, Verstappen and Sergio Perez, have alternated first and second in Bahrain and Jeddah, with the next closest car 38 and 20 seconds behind, respectively. Ferrari, who were expected to be Red Bull’s main rival this year, have barely improved their car as they struggle with pace and reliability issues.

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However, things aren’t as rosy as they seem at Red Bull, with their two lead drivers at odds with one another. One is more focused on following the team directives in order to maximise team success, and the other has greater concern about his own personal prestige. Jeddah only amplified these issues with Verstappen ignoring team orders to pursue the fastest lap, taking it away from teammate Perez. By doing this, Verstappen has taken a one-point lead in the Drivers Championship.

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner has attempted to play down any civil war between his drivers by saying, “We’ve got two very mature drivers who work well together; they’ve worked well together previously.” Horner is trying to create a happy bubble for his team, but you get the sense that it won’t be long before the bubble bursts.

Some critics have compared this driver stoush to Mercedes in 2016, where Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton battled despite being teammates. But in that instance, you could see that the drivers were at a similar level of ability – not so here. Verstappen is a superior driver to Perez, so expect Max to take home victory in Australia ($1.38).

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At the other end of the constructor standings sit McLaren, who have had a nightmare start to their 2023 campaign. Last year’s fifth-placegetters have struggled so far to keep the car on the track, and even when they do, they have virtually no pace. The team at this stage is banking on improvements from an upgrade that is expected late April, but there will be no big changes to the car coming into Australia.

If the performance on the track has been awful, then performance off the grid has been just as bad as McLaren announced the firing of 25-year technical director James Key only two races in. It would seem that the only winner to come out of McLaren has been Daniel Ricciardo – who, after the awkward sacking last year, is currently being paid $18 million to not drive the car. Factoring in the car’s performance, and the drivers’ ability to handle it, and McLaren look a decent bet to have the first card drop out of the race ($6.50).

It’s not too difficult to predict who will be around first to eighth. Red Bull will be there, Aston Martin and Mercedes will be there, and Ferrari will do enough if they can keep their cars on the track. But more difficult to predict is the scramble for the final two points places.

Each of the other teams have, at various stages, shown a good level of race pace. However, many of the other drivers are at the beginning of their F1 careers, and their experience pales in comparison to Valteri Bottas. It might be a decent middle-of-the-pack car, but the Alfa Romeo has shown that it can still push for points, and having Bottas behind the wheel can’t hurt its chances.

The Finnish driver will come to Albert Park with much fanfare. He oozes a ‘pseudo-Australian’ charm that has garnered the admiration of many Aussie supporters. Bottas should put in a good drive, with the fans riding him home to claim a points finish this Sunday ($3).

Key matchup: Lewis Hamilton vs Fernando Alonso

The most exciting matchup so far has been the competition between Mercedes and Aston Martin. At the head of each team is their most experienced driver: Fernando Alonso for Aston Martin, and Lewis Hamilton for Mercedes. These two have history dating back to their days at McLaren, and there is no love lost when out on the track. Alonso so far has taken home the spoils in this rivalry, but don’t count out a seven-time world champion. This matchup could dictate which driver takes home third.

2023 Australian Grand Prix betting predictions

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