ALP odds drift in federal election betting as Albo gets jitters
As Australia heads to the polls in the 2022 federal election, betting markets continue to fluctuate as the electorate takes a closer look at their voting options.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese was installed as warm favourite when the election was officially announced, opening around the $1.40 mark with Ladbrokes Australia.
This was based largely on the unpopularity of sitting Prime Minister Scott Morrison. The LNP leader has an aloof quality that alienates non-partisan voters, and it felt like the winds of change would certainly prevail.
This federal election polling and betting lead promptly quickly evaporated when Albanese fronted the press and copped serious scrutiny. “Albo” is not a details man and stumbled badly when asked simple questions regarding common economic figures, and his party’s own policies.
Voters were spooked by this apparent lack of competence and betting markets reacted accordingly as the ALP drifted out to as long as $2.05 to win Saturday’s federal election.
Since these gaffes, Albo has kept a lower profile, disappearing for days after a positive covid test, and tried to limit the damage. His odds of winning the election have again shortened, but largely by virtue of Morrison’s unpopularity. The contender has been seen running from press conferences when the questions got too hot, and you would expect this might lose him further support.
This is my table
With unpopular men leading the major Australian political parties, the dark horses in this race are the independents and minor parties. One Nation is polling well. Clive Palmer is spending big on advertising for his United Australia Party, and a number of ‘teal’ candidates, funded by Simon Holmes a Court, are running in what are normally considered safe Liberal seats. The teal folks, mostly prominent women, are running on climate issues and hope to force this debate.
So what will the election bring? As we draw close the ALP is paying around $1.48 on most online bookmakers, including Ladbrokes. This represents another drift in odds and is subject to change in the final hours.
Never forget that no-Brexit was $1.05 on the morning of the vote and lost, and CNN had Trump at a 3 per cent chance of winning the US Election in 2016.
When it comes to political betting, expect the unexpected. We have a sneaking suspicion numerous high-profile candidates will be tipped out and that a hung parliament potentially awaits.
Some well-known politicians who have their positions under threat include LNP pair Josh Frydenberg (Kooyong) and Tim Wilson (Goldstein) who are attempting to weather the attack from teal independents.
ALP star Kristina Keneally was parachuted into the traditionally safe seat of Fowler in NSW, but is in the fight of her political life against Fairfield Deputy Mayor Dai Le. Le, a former LNP member, has shorted dramatically in betting and Fowler is definitely a seat to keep an eye on.
Australian Federal Election odds
Below we will take a look at some of the key Australian federal election odds and examine the betting ahead of Saturday, May 21, 2022.
- Next Sworn in Government
- Labor $1.53
- Coalition $2.65
- Any other party $201
- Type of Government formed
- Liberal/National Coalition Majority 5.00
- Liberal/National Coalition Minority 4.50
- Labor Majority 2.05
- Labor Minority 3.25
- Will there be a hung parliament?
- Yes $2.20
- No $1.65
