Alex Pereira v Khalil Rountree Jr betting tips & odds | UFC 307

Light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira faces an unexpected challenger in Khalil Rountree Jr in the UFC 307 main event at Salt Lake City’s Delta Center this Sunday. Leading UFC bookies have installed Pereira as a prohibitive betting favourite, so punters might need to get creative to profit from this contest. Read on for our in-depth fight preview and top betting picks.

Pereira v Rountree UFC 307 main event analysis

Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr

Alex Pereira (11-2-0) has taken the MMA world by storm since making his UFC debut in 2021. The Brazilian captured the middleweight title in just his fourth appearance with the promotion, then added the light heavyweight crown a year later in November 2023. The 37-year-old is arguably the most talented striker to compete in the UFC and has finished his last three fights in spectacular fashion.

Pereira will enjoy a sizeable height and reach advantage in this bout, and his lethal kicks are likely to be his weapon of choice. He should be able to circle away from the lunging shots of his opponent while landing high and low kicks at will. While the champion has been involved in combat sport for more than a decade and has accumulated inevitable damage, this appears a favourable matchup against an outclassed contender.

Khalil Rountree Jr (14-5-0) earned his title shot with five straight victories from September 2021 until December 2023, four coming via knockout. The 34-year-old’s early UFC career was marked by inconsistency, and he appeared washed out in 2021 after a run of poor defeats. The American has worked hard to improve to his cardio and overall fitness, which may be needed at the high altitude of Salt Lake City.

Rountree is a confidence fighter who will need early success if he is to be competitive. In order to land his power strikes, he will have to close the distance without taking heavy shots. Any early reluctance to engage is likely to be punished, so the opening round will tell us how this contest will unfold.

Pereira v Rountree UFC 307 betting predictions

There is a scenario where the betting outsider springs a massive upset in Utah. If Rountree can find his range from the opening bell, block the long kicks coming his way, and land a straight punch, he can fell the champion. Given the disparity in striking prowess, however, this appears improbable.

The most likely outcome is that Pereira prods and pokes the challenger early, setting up one of his killer combinations. This was the outcome when he faced Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka, who both appeared tougher challengers.

The question for punters is when this will occur. There is no value in backing Pereira straight-up or via knockout, so we are tipping him to land the killer blow in the second round.

Sports betting tips