AFL Finals Week 1 betting preview, free tips & best odds

This weekend, the 2023 AFL finals series kicks off with four highly anticipated matches. Some sides will see their premiership hopes shattered, while others will have their expectations firmly set on a grand final appearance.

After an excellent home-and-away season where many attendance records were shattered, fans are now shifting their attention to the finals. Three of the four matches in week one sold out on the first day of sale, with finals footy proving to be the hottest ticket in town.

The shape of the eight was only decided in the final match of the season, so expect some close contests this weekend.

Collingwood Magpies v Melbourne Demons

The Collingwood Magpies will be looking to make the most of their excellent home-and-away season as they host the Melbourne Demons at the MCG on Thursday night.

The Pies shut down discussion of a late-season slump as they beat the Bombers by 70 points in round 24, while the Demons come into this match having won seven of their last eight matches.

With both sides showing excellent form at the MCG this season, expect a physical contest between two quality teams to kick off the finals series.

Having won the minor premiership, the Magpies look the safer bet as high-priced favourites with Palmerbet.

Carlton Blues v Sydney Swans

The Carlton Blues are playing their first final in 10 years this Friday night as they take on the Sydney Swans at the MCG.

Although both teams lost in round 24, they came into those games with their finals places secured on the back of impressive winning streaks.

The lack of finals experience may play a role for the Blues in this match as they come up against the 2022 grand finalists, but the home-ground advantage should help.

After ending the season as arguably the form team in the AFL, it’s hard to look past the Blues in this one.

St Kilda Saints v GWS Giants

The GWS Giants travel down to Melbourne on Saturday as they take on the St Kilda Saints in the third MCG match of the weekend.

After scraping into the top eight in the last match of the season, the Giants will look to keep their form going after an excellent last two weeks.

The Saints only just held onto a home final by 0.7% and, as a result, were rewarded with a match at the MCG as opposed to Marvel Stadium, their regular home ground.

Look for the Saints to try to play a slow-kicking style of play as opposed to the Giants’ rapid ball movement across the ground.

The Saints have defied expectations all year and look set to do so again this week as home underdogs with most online bookmakers.

Another safe bet looks to be the under 155.5 total points, with these two being the best defensive sides in the AFL.

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide Power

In the only match away from the MCG this weekend, the Brisbane Lions host the Port Adelaide Power with a home preliminary final on the line.

Unbeaten at the Gabba this season, the Lions look in top shape for a premiership tilt with two home finals.

The Power seemingly have shaken off their slide from rounds 18-21 by winning their last three matches, recapturing some of their strong early-season form.

The Lions should be too strong at home, and it is worth taking them at the -15.5 handicap for even greater value.

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