AFL Finals: Collingwood vs Sydney betting tips & best odds

Can Collingwood overcome the SCG fortress when they tackle the Sydney Swans this Saturday in the second AFL preliminary final?

The Swans go into this game in fine form after they easily disposed of Melbourne in the opening week of their finals campaign. The Swans will be looking to build on their impeccable September record, having gone 5-1 from their last six preliminary final appearances. They last tasted premiership success back in 2012, when they knocked over the Hawks, and were beaten grand finalists to the Bulldogs in 2016.

MORE AFL FINALS TIPS: Geelong vs Brisbane best bets – Friday, September 16

There is much debate regarding the benefits or otherwise of a week off during a season. Many teams are cold on their return and are prone to suffering a significant form slump. The upside is that players get some rest during a long and gruelling season, but the downside is that they can potentially switch off and relax. The fixtures following a round of byes are always liable to throw up some weird results. Only time will tell how the Swans are affected by their break, but don’t be surprised if they start the game a little rusty.

Collingwood kept their miraculous season alive with an impressive win over the Dockers in their semi final and will be confident going into this do-or-die encounter. Although Fremantle added some late respectability to the scoreline with two fourth-quarter goals, Collingwood were in complete control throughout to post a 20-point victory. They are playing confident, assured football and internal confidence levels are sky high.

Unlike the Swans, who haven’t graced the field for a fortnight, the Collingwood machine remains in motion. Their squad looks deep and focussed, they are being coached by a master motivator, and we expect another stellar performance, if not an upset. Hungry young teams care little for betting odds.

Key matchup: Callum Mills vs Jordan De Goey

Sydney midfielder Callum Mills might be the vital component for the Swans in this game. Mills has been among their best performers all season, averaging 24.8 disposals, 6.5 tackles, 6.7 marks, and 4.0 clearances per game. These numbers are a big jump on his career averages, and the 25-year-old is coming into his prime. Look for him to lead the Sydney midfield brigade with a bold display.

Collingwood midfielder Jordan De Goey was the best-on-ground against the Cats in week one of the finals, notching 26 disposals, two goals, eight clearances, and nine tackles. De Goey appears to relish the big stage and has the confidence to assume additional pressure when the stakes are high. He is unafraid to finish his own hard work when a goal is on offer and looks the key Collingwood player in this contest.

Sydney vs Collingwood prelim final betting strategy

With the home ground advantage and a win over the Pies in round 22, the Swans are solid favourites going into this match, with the line set around 17.5 points. Our modelling reveals a much closer outcome, and it appears AFL betting markets are still underestimating the Collingwood form. We are happy to disregard the round 22 game when there was little on the line and focus on the first half of the Geelong game for a true indication of Collingwood’s capabilities. We think they are the real deal, so Collingwood at the +17.5 handicap is the tip. We will also be placing smaller bets on the Pies to win outright.

Sydney vs Collingwood PF same game multi tips

For those looking to scoop some bigger returns, we will be linking our main tip with Jamie Elliott 2+ goals and Jack Crisp 20+ disposals. This triple-header will return $4.87 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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