AFL Finals 2022: Melbourne vs Brisbane SF tips & best value bets

Will Melbourne’s recent dominance of the Brisbane continue when the sides clash at the MCG in a must-win semi final this Friday night?

The Demons don’t really have any excuses for their loss to Sydney in week one of the finals. They were just outplayed when it mattered most. After two and a half quarters of competitive football, the Swans pulled away in the third and fourth stanzas to post a convincing 22-point victory. The defeat was compounded by a possible calf injury to superstar Christian Petracca, who will be assessed in the coming days to see if he is able to take the field.

The good news is that Melbourne now face the Brisbane Lions, a team they have dominated in recent times. Should this trend continue, the bad news is that the Demons would next face flag favourites Geelong in a fixture many pundits thought would be the grand final matchup. If Melbourne do manage to secure a second successive premiership after losing in week one, they will have certainly earned it the hard way.

Brisbane shook off their finals bad luck with a nail-biting win over the Tigers that featured a late score review that made no sense. A Tigers goal was declared by the man between the sticks, only to be overturned seconds later when the geniuses upstairs determined that a football spinning through space had travelled directly over a goal post. Anyway, winners are grinners, and the Lions were ecstatic to progress to the semis.

Given the relief of the Brisbane personnel, one can’t help but wonder whether they have now fulfilled their season’s desires. Instant elimination would have crushed their spirits, but that embarrassment has now been avoided. Or perhaps the Lions will be freed of the weight of expectation and can now produce their best on the big stage? Time will tell, although their recent form at the MCG is less than promising.

Key matchup: Clayton Oliver vs Lachie Neale

With the possibility of Petracca missing through injury, the pressure will fall on Melbourne midfielder Clayton Oliver to increase his already prodigious output. Oliver had a big game against the Swans, finishing with 29 disposals, two goals, eight clearances, and eight tackles, but it was not enough. Oliver is a big-game player and can be expected to do everything in his power to get his team over the line.

Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale played a final for the ages against the Tigers, posting 39 disposals, 15 clearances, and 455 metres gained in a performance that confirmed his champion status. If Neale can replicate that type of heroism against the Demons, his team stands some chance of grabbing the spoils. It’s no surprise that Neale and Oliver share Brownlow Medal favouritism.

Melbourne vs Brisbane semi final betting strategy

The Demons are predictably short here given their recent form against the Lions, with the line set at around 18.5 points with most online bookies. This might be a trap bet, though, given the closeness of the finals so far. Melbourne’s 22-point loss to Sydney was the outlier in week one, with the other three games decided by 13 points or fewer. Intersecting confidence levels also point toward a possible bold Brisbane showing, so we are running against the herd and tipping the Lions to cover the +18.5 handicap. Here’s hoping this final is another cliff-hanger.

Melbourne vs Brisbane same game multi tips

For those unmoved by even-money bets, we will be linking our main tip with some value-adding exotic wagers. So, we are going Brisbane +18.5, into Lachie Neale 25+ disposals, into Bayley Fritsch 2+ goals. This combo will return $4.13 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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