AFL 2025 preliminary-final previews, betting tips & best odds

Week 3 of the 2025 AFL Finals are here, and Grand Final spots are on the line with two exciting Preliminary Final matches.

The first Prelim kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster clash between old rivals Hawthorn and Geelong. Meanwhile, we have a 2023 Grand Final replay on Saturday afternoon as Collingwood host Brisbane.

Here are our AFL betting previews for each of the games.

Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks

Friday, September 19 – 7:40pm AEST – MCG

Geelong catapulted themselves into premiership favouritism two weeks ago, when they comfortably beat Brisbane by 38 points at the MCG. After a week off, expect the Cats to be well rested and ready for the challenge against the Hawks. Chris Scott’s side have now made it to this stage in eight of the last 10 years, so don’t expect them to be overwhelmed by the occasion.

In the forward line, keep an eye on Jeremy Cameron and Shannon Neale in the goal-scoring markets. Meanwhile, Bailey Smith, Max Holmes and Tom Stewart will be the main accumulators of disposals.

On the other hand, Hawthorn have had to do it the hard way after finishing eighth on the ladder. They secured a close win over the Giants in Week 1, before heading across to Adelaide last Friday, where they made a statement in a 34-point win over the minor premiers.

The Hawks run on momentum, and when they get going, they are hard to stop. Midfielder Jai Newcombe has arguably been the best player of the finals series so far, but be weary of a tag when looking at the disposal markets. When looking at goal scorers, Jack Gunston and Mabior Chol are the tall options, while Nick Watson and Jack Ginnivan are the smalls.

This game looks set to be a thrilling affair, but the experience of the Cats should shine through, getting the job done as favourites in a close one.

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Brisbane

Saturday, September 20 – 5:15pm AEST – MCG

Despite a poor finish to the home and away season, a 24-point win over the Crows two weeks ago shows that Collingwood are still a major threat for the premiership. They boast the oldest list in the AFL, with plenty of finals experience, which is set to play a role in this clash.

Star midfielder Nick Daicos is the one to watch in this clash, but watch out for the impact from more seasoned players such as Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom.

While Collingwood have one of the healthiest lists in the competition, Brisbane are missing several key players for this clash, most notably Lachie Neale and Eric Hipwood, who have been ruled out during this finals series.

• 

  Fast Payouts

Many wrote off the Lions after their Week 1 loss to the Cats, but last Saturday they were dominant, beating Gold Coast by 53 points at home. As the reigning premiers, it is clear that Brisbane have the quality to compete with the best and that they can get it done at the MCG.

However, they will need to continue getting the most out of their dynamic smalls, with their lack of tall options going forward. In the middle, Josh Dunkley has been excellent in both finals so far, while Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage are the other options in the disposal markets.

Although top AFL bookmakers have close odds in this clash, expect Collingwood to book their place in the Grand Final with a strong display. They hold the home advantage, have a healthier list and come in off an extended break, so back them to cover the line of -5.5 points at $1.90.

Sports betting tips