Adelaide vs Richmond AFL tips, odds & best bets – Rd 5, 2022

Richmond head over to Adelaide Oval this Saturday afternoon for an interesting clash with the Crows in round five of the 2022 AFL Premiership campaign.

Despite recording a solitary victory thus far, the Adelaide Crows have easily out-performed expectations across the first four rounds. They lost by a point to the Dockers, who are playing reasonable football, and pushed the Bombers all the way to ultimately lose by four points. The Crows could be 3-1 if they had been blessed with a little luck, which would be miles above their highest pre-season hopes. Their lone victory was an especially sweet after-the-siren effort to consign cross-town rivals Port Adelaide to a heartbreaking defeat.

Richmond have been generously priced all season, and this game again provides decent value for Tiger backers. While they have suffered some big-name exclusions in early rounds, we have been pleasantly surprised by the odds secured for both Tiger victories. It seems markets over-reacted to their round one defeat, and Richmond should arguably be priced at a shorter quote here. They are close to fielding their best squad, except for Dylan Grimes and Dustin Martin, and we are officially on-board the Tiger bus in 2022.

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Key matchup: Keays vs Prestia

Crows midfielder Ben Keays has hit some nice form this season, linking well with proven ball-winner Rory Laird. Keays averages 28 possessions a game and six tackles and can be a danger man in the middle. Keays joined the Crows after being delisted by the Lions in 2019 and is now finding his groove in South Australia. A fit and firing Dion Prestia had a day out for the Tigers against the Bulldogs last week, scooping 30 disposals and booting one straight goal. These two ball-magnets loom as the key figures in the battle for midfield dominance.

Adelaide vs Richmond betting strategy

The early line has been set at a narrow 5.5 points for this game and the total game points at a surprisingly high 173.5. This might be a close game, but we are expecting the superior skills of the Tigers to eventually shine through. Rather than back Richmond -5.5, we’ll take them to win by 1-39 looks, which is currently returning $2.30 on BetOnline. It’s hard to imagine a blowout, and the lead might swing several times before the Tigers get on top. So, while the markets keep serving up decent odds for Richmond, we are just inclined to keep taking them.

Adelaide vs Richmond same-game multi tips

For those craving a sweat or some same-game value, we’re going to link Richmond 1-39, into Tom Lynch 2+ goals, into Ben Keays 25+ disposals. This triple-header will return $3.86 on BetOnline. The presence of Jack Riewoldt works well for Lynch, who booted 4.0 against the Bulldogs last week. Here’s hoping he can shoot straight again and get the Tigers home.

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