Adelaide v Collingwood AFL Rd 7 betting tips – April 30, 2023

The final game of round seven in the 2023 AFL Premiership sees second-placed Collingwood make their way over to Adelaide to face the Crows in a match with top-four complications.

Last week, Adelaide travelled down to Launceston to take on Hawthorn and came away narrow three-point winners, thanks to a Darcy Fogarty goal in the dying minutes. A tight affair throughout, Hawthorn had a 13-point lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the last quarter. However, the Crows rallied together and showed resilience and an ability to ‘win dirty’, qualities that a finals contender needs to have.

The Adelaide Crows have been one of the surprise packages of the season so far. After losing their first two games, the Crows have won their next four, including games against fellow top-eight teams Carlton and Port Adelaide.

A major part of this is the development of their forward line. With names such as Fogarty, Izak Rankine, Riley Thilthorpe and Josh Rachele working alongside more mature players like Taylor Walker and Ben Keays, the Crows are currently the fourth-highest scoring team in the competition.

The Collingwood Magpies faced off against Essendon last round in an unforgettable ANZAC Day clash in front of a crowd of more than 95,000. In a finals-like atmosphere, Collingwood were trailing by 28 points at three-quarter time, only to kick seven goals to none in the last quarter to run out 13-point winners. Coming home strong in the last quarter is becoming trademark of this Collingwood team, as opposition sides are repeatedly left helpless to stop a frenzy of late goals.

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Injuries to Collingwood’s rucks have threatened to derail their season, yet the makeshift combination of Billy Frampton and Ash Johnson did enough to limit the dual pairing of Sam Draper and Andrew Phillips for Essendon. This week, the pair face another challenge against Reilly O’Brien, who is second in the competition for hitouts. In a competition between two strong midfields, this will be a key factor in determining the winner of the clearances and, ultimately, the match.

Injuries to Collingwood tall forwards have resulted in an increased reliance upon their smalls in order to kick a winning score. Jamie Elliott, Bobby Hill, Jack Ginnivan and Beau McCreery all have the added responsibility of playing not only as a pressure forward, but also being able to create contest to bring the ball to ground. After having a quiet game last week and missing some gettable chances, expect Elliott to bounce back with two or more goals ($2.05)

On a clear day in Adelaide on Sunday, expect both forward lines to be fit and firing. Each of these two sides sits inside the top six for total points scored in the competition, so expect this to continue on the weekend with the two teams combining for over 172.5 points ($1.88).

Although the Crows are having a strong and surprising season, the Magpies sit as premiership favourites for a reason. The overall high-pressure system at Collingwood will force Adelaide into making mistakes, leading to quick goals on the turnover. If Adelaide are any chance of winning this game, they will need to exploit the smaller size of the Magpies; however, this will most likely not be enough. Collingwood to win is the play at $1.50.

Key matchup: Ben Keays v Nick Daicos

Ben Keays vs Nick Daicos

When discussing Collingwood, there is one player that you have to mention — Nick Daicos. The second-year player is having a record season, averaging 36.7 disposals and a goal a game to assume rightful Brownlow Medal favouritism. On Tuesday, he won the ANZAC Medal against Essendon, where he had 40 disposals and kicked two last-quarter goals to drag the Magpies over the line.

Following this performance, all week there has been a question on everyone’s lips: does Daicos get tagged? Adelaide coach Matthew Nicks was asked this question at a press conference on Thursday and suggested that the Crows would be looking to play someone alongside him.

A name that seems to be a great fit is Ben Keays. Formerly a tough two-way midfielder, he has had a change of roles this season as a pressure forward. Throughout his days as a midfielder, he has twice averaged over five tackles per game, while also possessing the tank needed to run alongside Daicos for the duration of the game.

Although Daicos may be able to break this tag, there is minimal value in taking him for 30 or more disposals, with the added attention making it less probable that he is able to play as he normally would.

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