Adelaide v Carlton AFL Rd 5 tips, odds & value bets – 13/4/2023

Adelaide Oval plays host to what should be an electric contest to open the AFL’s Gather Round as the Adelaide Crows take on the Carlton Blues this Thursday night. Adelaide enter this match after an impressive victory against Fremantle, while Carlton got the job done against North Melbourne.

It is rarefied air to say aloud ‘another week, and another win for Carlton’. But last week proved that they are up to facing any opponent, such is their adaptability.

The Roos were spirited early and more than matched the Blues in the contest, but none of that mattered as Carlton still found a way to power themselves to victory. Last week it was their presence in the air; Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay up forward combined for 10 goals, while Jacob Weitering and Mitch McGovern controlled the airways down back.

But we have seen early this season that it doesn’t always have to be their talls. Depending on the match up, or way the game is unfolding, their smalls and contested mids can be match winners as well.

So how does this ultra-adaptable team match up against the Crows? The answer is: extremely well. The Crows have a similar style of best 23, mixing young ball-accumulators with terrific talks. However, the Crows haven’t found their polish yet, their side resembling a Carlton from two years ago who were ready to explode on the competition.

It goes without saying that the Blues aren’t a completely polished group either, but they certainly understand their strengths, and play with enough confidence and dare to beat any opponent in front of them. This game should play out as expected: the Blues mids will flex their strength, and Carlton’s plethora of talls, at either end of the ground, will be too much for Adelaide to overcome. Carlton for the win is paying $1.90 with Marantelli Bet.

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Adelaide have found their groove in the past fortnight, beating the Power and the Dockers, and won’t be easy beats in this contest. Their midfield has a way of accumulating plenty of possessions, allowing their forwards to see plenty of action.

Two of the Crows’ forwards in particular have used the work upfield to come of age in 2023: Riley Thilthorpe and Izak Rankine. The last fortnight has shown that Thilthorpe will be a dominant force in the years to come – the man is athletic, strong, and rarely drops a mark. But Carlton’s aerial defence maybe far too strong for the young key-position player, leaving much of the ball at the feet of Rankine.

Rankine is mouth-watering to any footy pundit. He is so elusive, quick, and has a skill level that has us reminded of Cyril Rioli. He struggled with the Suns in his early career, but since moving home to South Australia, the footy world is getting a chance to see the best of what Rankine has to offer.

Last week Carlton struggled with North’s mid-sized forwards, and if it wasn’t for Cameron Zurhaar’s inaccuracy, it could have been a whole lot worse. There just wasn’t a clear matchup for them, and to make matters worse for this weekend, none of North’s mid-sized forwards are as electric as Rankine. Expect the young Crow to enjoy some forward-50 freedom and light up for two or more goals ($1.74).

Both teams will be coming off short turnarounds from the previous round. Adelaide will come into this match just five days from playing the Dockers, while Carlton come in off six days’ rest but have to make the journey from Melbourne to Adelaide.

This means that exhaustion should set in for the two sides as the game progresses, leading to a lack of defensive pressure and some poor skills. If one team is to shore up one or both of these potential weaknesses, then it should be able to pile on plenty of scoreboard pressure. Look for the total points to be above 174.5 ($1.88).

Key matchup: Walker v Weitering

Taylor Walker vs Jacob Weitering

Jacob Weitering may be the best fullback in the AFL right now. The former number one pick hasn’t always had it easy, but with his team doing more up field, he is able to show us his best with less pressure on him. Weitering held last week’s Coleman Medal leader goalless, and while many will say that Nick Larkey was playing sore, the Carlton stopper was everywhere inside the defensive 50. However, this week’s challenge will be tough for the young Blue, as he comes up against an aggressive veteran in terrific form.

Taylor Walker maybe ageing, but he is just as athletic and powerful as he was in his prime. The Crows know that if they are to win this game against the Blues, then they will need their spirited leader to slam home a few goals. He did just that last week, kicking four goals, so Walker is more than capable of winding back the clock and dominating. The challenge is put forth on Weitering, and he will know that if he fails, it could cost his team victory.

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