A-League Round 14 tips, odds & value bets – January 26-29

Round 14 of the A-League is blessed with compelling storylines. Will the Melbourne Victory fans behave themselves at AAMI Park when they take on Sydney FC? Can Wellington keep their hot streak alive against the Glory? Who will win the round’s blockbuster, the second placed Central Coast or the third placed Wanderers? And can Melbourne City return to their winning ways after successive draws? Read on for a full breakdown.

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney FC

Thursday 26 January, 6:45 pm —
AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Melbourne Victory ($2.55) trainwreck season continued in round 13, when Tony Popovic’s charges were soundly beaten 3-1 by the Perth Glory. Victory remain lodged at the bottom of the ladder, having started the campaign as equal favourites alongside Melbourne City to claim the silverware. They have not won a game of football since round seven, and there appear no signs of improvement. Victory are fortunate to have drawn the sputtering Sydney FC for this game and not an in-form opponent. Off the field, a large police presence is expected to ensure the match proceeds without incident.

Sydney FC ($2.75) are also enduring a nightmare season and have posted a mere four wins from 13 appearances. This is only one more than the Victory. They failed to trouble the scorer in round 13 losing 1-0 to Western United and looked sluggish and disorganised through the middle of the park. Defence has been their major weakness to date having conceded 22 goals, the competition’s second worst outcome.

Newcastle Jets vs Brisbane Roar

Friday 27 January, 7:45 pm —
McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Newcastle ($2.80) played 90 minutes of solid football in round 13, recording a 1-1 draw with the third placed Wanderers. They hit the front in the 37th minute courtesy of an Angus Thurgate finish and held their opponents at bay until mid-way through the second half when Oliver Bozanic equalised from the spot. Consistency has been the Jets’ weakness all season and this hard-fought contest might prove a minor turning point in their mindset.

The Brisbane ($2.55) wall held firm in round 13 and the league’s second tightest defensive unit proved impenetrable to the attacking Melbourne City squad. The 0-0 draw moves the Roar to eighth spot and fans can only ponder how far their team might have gone with a few more goals. Brisbane have only found the back of the net 10 times across 13 outings and would otherwise be a top five side. We are therefore expecting a low scoring evening of football.

Wellington Phoenix vs Perth Glory

Saturday 28 January, 1:00 pm —
Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North
Wellington ($1.75) produced one of the most polished performances in round 13, comfortably accounting for the surging Mariners at home. Alex Rufer and the ever-dangerous Oskar Zawada handled the goal scoring duties, and the Central Coast were unable to respond until a stoppage time consolation prize. The Phoenix move to fourth on the ladder and have tasted defeat only thrice to this stage. Aggressive off-season recruitment has paid dividends and coach Ufuk Talay has instilled a winning team spirit.

Perth ($4.40) kept their Macedonia Park fortress alive in round 13 with a 3-1 win over Melbourne Victory with Adam Taggert the standout with goals in the 80th and 87th minutes. Both sides were reduced to 10 men at that point and space was abundant. The Glory’s away form has been less impressive, and they have only won once on the road during this campaign; a surprise 1-2 victory over the Mariners in round three. Perth are therefore expected to struggle in Wellington against a Phoenix side that is in sparkling form.

Macarthur FC vs Western United

Saturday 28 January, 5:00 pm —
Campbelltown Stadium
Macarthur ($2.40) came up short on their road trip to Adelaide in round 13, continuing their hot and cold season. Dwight Yorke’s squad has struggled to gather any real momentum, and their wins in rounds eight and nine is the only time they have gone back-to-back. This type of inconsistency leaves Macarthur precariously placed at sixth on the ladder, with five team nipping at their heels. Another slip up here could see them slide into ninth or tenth position.

Western United ($2.70) emerged from the North Hobart Oval with a tidy 1-0 over Sydney FC and their form across the last six weeks is solid enough. The only blemish during this spell was a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Melbourne City, but they beat the Wanderers, Victory, and Sydney FC and drew with Brisbane and Newcastle. United have climbed to ninth on the ladder with an improved defensive effort and are decent chance to pinch the points here.

Central Coast Mariners vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday 28 January, 7:45 pm —
Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The runaway Central Coast ($2.05) were halted in round 13 when they travelled to Wellington and got bogged in the New Zealand mud. The loss sees them narrowly hold onto second spot. Fortunately for the Mariners, only a point was conceded to leaders Melbourne City who were held to a 0-0 draw at Kayo Stadium. We can expect the Mariners to be fired up for this home game against the third placed Wanderers. With only two points separating the sides, this game is effectively a six pointer and should produce an enthralling spectacle.

The Wanderers ($3.60) fought out another tight finish in round 13, and nobody can question their ability to play finals like football. The Wanderers are lacking an out and out striker, but it is hard to fault their commitment, structure, and tenacity. They have only scored 14 goals to date, compared to the Central Coast’s 27, and Melbourne City’s 24 but robust defence and an ability to accumulate premiership points sees them in the top three.

Melbourne City vs Adelaide United

Sunday 29 January, 3:00 —
AAMI Park, Melbourne
Melbourne City ($1.50) failed to hit the scoresheet in round 13 after being frustrated by the tireless Brisbane defence who worked hard to shut down danger man Jamie Maclaren. This is the second week City have dropped points and they will be keen to recapture previous momentum. They sit five points clear at the top of the ladder but cannot afford to slacken their efforts with a pair of motivated chasers in the rear-view mirror.

Adelaide United ($5.75) got the job done at home in round 13 with the narrowest of margins against Macarthur. This continues their solid record at Coopers Stadium, which contrasts with United’s less impressive form on the road. They have produced mathematically tidy results this season, with 18 goals scored and 18 conceded, and five wins, four draws, and four losses. Adeliade’s best result away from home was a 2-4 win over Western United in round five, and it has become clear that there is a big gap between their performances based on location.

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