2022 AFL Futures: How not to waste money on pre-season bets

The early rounds of any lengthy sport season provide limited betting opportunities, and the AFL is no different; however, there is no shortage of factors to be analysed. The first task is to split the teams into top, mid, and bottom rankings based on premiership betting markets. No pre-season market is entirely accurate, but they provide a solid starting point.

Assessing the top-ranked sides

Teams that are expected to finish top four should have a very different training schedule to mid- and bottom-ranked sides. Be mindful that during the opening rounds the flag contenders are merely limbering up and will look like stayers first-up over an unsuitable 1200 metres. Their fitness and conditioning staff should be focused on having players peak much later in the year. Early performances that look disappointing on paper might be part of careful long-range planning. Nobody expects Melbourne Cup hopefuls to outrun the specialist sprinters over six furlongs.

Early betting opportunities

Look to place premiership bets on top flag contenders when they hit a flat spot at some point during the season. If you fancy the Lions to run deep in September and they lose three in a row early in the year, snap up the overs before the team gets its roar back. Look to back multiple contenders during the year and try capture the season’s best odds.

Assessing mid-ranked sides

Every season throws up several surprise packages – teams that were not expected to play finals who squeeze into September action. These squads don’t have the luxury of a slow, gradual stayer’s preparation and must grab four points at every opportunity. Such sides might over-achieve on the road because they simply cannot afford to drop winnable games. To play finals they must also beat other teams vying for the bottom few spots in the top eight, so those games will be treated like a derby with more at stake. If such a team gets on a winning streak, confidence will carry it a long way, so watch out if any of these sides run hot.

Assessing bottom-ranked sides

Look for bottom-ranked sides that have made significant off-season progress, both via the draft and by recruiting older players that fill a key personnel gap. A key indicator that often gets overlooked by betting markets is how long a bottom-ranked team can remain competitive with sides expected to finish in the top eight. Watch out for young teams putting together solid two- or three-quarter performances before running out of steam late in the game. These squads will spring upsets during the season, and we want to be prepared.

Assessing wider squad strength

How good is a team’s reserves list? Will Sydney’s premiership hopes go up in smoke when the inevitable mid-season injuries strike? How strong is the team’s feeder club? Is it bursting with talent that can easily slot into a top AFL side, or will a couple of key injuries leave gaping, unfillable holes?

Brownlow betting is for suckers

Forget betting on the Brownlow Medal. It’s remarkable that fans who spend 23 rounds criticising umpires suddenly presume the men in yellow have supernatural powers of performance analysis come Brownlow night. Umpires are weird, little failed players who are unable to judge anything beyond their direct field of vision. Brownlow Medal betting early in the season makes even less sense. Your selection is dodging injury and suspension during every subsequent round, and markets do not provide the value required to navigate such hazards. Live trading on Brownlow night is permitted, but the data geeks who spend endless hours guessing how dozens of different umpires might view the game are wasting their time. The world’s best model cannot account for the bias and perspective of others. You might as well bet on some random guy’s rating for the latest Batman movie.

What have we learned?

So that’s some pointers for the early AFL season. Serious wagers should not be placed until punters have seen enough to clearly differentiate the contenders from the pretenders. The early rounds should be viewed as a series of homework assignments that will pay off later in the season when we can spot factors betting markets overlook. And money saved by not betting on the Brownlow can be better invested elsewhere.

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