Sicily and Sidebottom disposal tips – Hawks vs. Magpies Rd 1 betting

By Nathan Marotta

Saturday, 24th March, 2018, 7.25 pm AEST, MCG, watch on Seven Network and Fox Footy.

IT’S hard to find a more do-or-die clash in the opening round of the 2018 AFL season than the one between Hawthorn and Collingwood.

After disappointing seasons last year, both teams are looking to re-enter the finals picture in 2018 and will have this match ear-marked as a must-win.

Each club is under the constant attack of the media and the scrutiny that comes with bold and questionable list-management decisions.

Hawthorn is praying that its paper-thin star, Jaeger O’Meara, can successfully run out the game, but more importantly, play to the peak of his powers to silence the doubts on the cost the club paid to lure him.

The story is similar at the Magpies. Is anyone in the best 22 going to be fit to play? Why are expensive recruits Daniel Wells and Chris Mayne not in the team? Will Darcy Moore’s move to the backline work? Can the Magpies kick a winning score?

If Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley can engineer a win and answer these questions, he’ll go a long way towards justifying his new two-year contract.

While Hawthorn is the favourite coming into the match, the betting is quite even. Let’s take a look at where the value lies.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies Round 1 – Total Points tips

Over/Under 172.5 Points @ $1.90 with Sportsbet – Over

When these teams click and the move the ball cleaning, scoring comes naturally. Hawthorn has traditionally been one of the most disciplined teams in the league in this regard. Collingwood is well known for leaving gaps all across the field and allowing teams to utilise short kicks – which is one of Hawthorn’s strengths. Hawthorn will transition with ease if the Pies slack off. Needless to say, Collingwood has shown that goal kicking is one of its weakest points — we expect them to break the hoodoo and pile the scores on this week.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies Round 1 – 30 + Disposals tips

Hawthorn Hawks

James Sicily @ $5.00 with Sportsbet

While the league trends towards small forward lines, Collingwood has stuck to a much taller setup. If the long kick towards their key pillars is wayward, then James Sicily could win a mountain of footy. Ultimately, Sicily is the catalyst when rebounding the ball back outside the defensive 50 for the Hawks. At $5.00, he’s great value.

Collingwood Magpies

Steele Sidebottom @ $2.20 with Sportsbet

Steele will have more freedom to cover the ground in 2018 with a slight position change which will see him push forward more often. Sidebottom has proven he is one of the elite players for the Pies by winning his first Best and Fairest in the black and white in 2017. With his elite endurance and willingness to compete, Steele will easily notch up the 30 touches.

Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Magpies Round 1 – Super Margin tips

Hawthorn Hawks

10 – 19 @ $7.50 with Sportsbet

Alistair Clarkson has made it evident that Hawthorn has no intention of spending any time rebuilding at the bottom end of the ladder. After completing a quick list regeneration, the Hawks are well on their way back into the finals conversation and will look to start strong on Saturday night. The Hawks have beaten the Pies in 10 of their last 11 encounters – the two-three goal margin is real value with that in mind.

Collingwood Magpies

10 – 19 @ $8.00 with Sportsbet

Collingwood has announced that half back Sam Murray and young star Jaidyn Stephenson will debut for the club – Buckley is hoping an injection of new blood will provide the kind of spark the team needs to upend Hawthorn in the season opener. Hawthorn did break its drought against Hawthorn last season and while key players are missing, its midfield could still prove to be a game-breaker. If the Magpie forward line can kick a winning score, the Magpies will back themselves in a close one.

Hawks vs. Magpies betting predictions

Match Result: Collingwood to win @ $1.95 with Ladbrokes
Line Betting: Collingwood 1.5 + @ $1.92 with Ladbrokes

Collingwood’s form in its second JLT win against the Bulldogs a fortnight ago was better than anything we’ve seen from Hawthorn so far over the summer. Had it not been for some key Collingwood omissions and lingering resentment and anger about 2017, the Magpies would have started favourite in this match. We think the Magpies’ midfield will lead the way in a big win for the club, who could enjoy the underdog tag and lowered expectations.