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Selwood & Oliver disposal odds – Melbourne vs. Geelong Rd 1 betting

  • MATCH UP STATS

    Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats

    • 2017 finish:

      Melbourne Demons: 9th
      Geelong Cats: 2nd, prelim final exit
    • Form guide:

      Melbourne Demons: JLT victories over Kangaroos, Saints
      Geelong Cats: JLT defeats to Suns, Bombers

By Nathan Marotta

Sunday, 25th March, 2018, 3.20 pm AEST, MCG, Watch on Seven Network and on Fox Footy.

THERE are few bigger games in the opening round of the 2018 AFL season than Sunday’s afternoon clash at the MCG between Melbourne and Geelong.

After big-name recruiting for both sides in the trade period, there’s buzz around both of these teams and their chances to influence the premiership race this season.

Melbourne’s prized recruit is former Adelaide defender Jake Lever. Lever’s move was a much-publicised one after being one of the Crows’ best in last year’s Grand Final loss and comes across on huge money.

In one of the most notable moves of the summer, Geelong employed some hack named Gary Ablett Jr. The bald master returns to his home and with that, lifts the premiership hopes of a side that finished second last year.

Melbourne enters this game without captain Jack Viney and key position swing man Tom McDonald — both sustaining foot injuries that haven’t healed properly. Demon Clayton Oliver passed a fitness test during the week and is right to go.

For the Cats, Patrick Dangerfield will not take part in Sunday’s match. His hamstring strain has not healed at the rate that the doctors expected. This changes the game completely as Geelong’s record without Dangerfield is far from attractive.

The betting for this match is even from most bookmakers, let’s see where we can find some value.

Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats Round 1 – Total Points tips

Over/Under 180.5 @ $1.90 with Sportsbet – Over

Across both of its JLT matches, Melbourne averaged 120 points. At the MCG with light to minimal rain, we think the Dees will score well. Geelong has multiple weapons forward. With Hawkins, who is coming off a five goal haul and crumbing forwards such as Menzel, who also kicked four, the addition of Ablett could prove too much for the Demons’ defence to handle.

Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats Round 1 – 30 + Disposals tips

Melbourne Demons

Clayton Oliver @ $1.67 with Sportsbet

Clayton Oliver passing his fitness test was the first step towards him having a brilliant game. With Scott Selwood still injured, Geelong do not have a notable lock down tagger and this could be a bonus for Oliver punters. Max Gawn back in the side is what Clayton has been waiting for. Expect most of Gawn’s ruckwork to go directly down Oliver’s throat.

Geelong Cats

Joel Selwood @ $2.75 with Sportsbet

Going under the radar since the arrival of old friend Gary, Joel has put together a great preseason and as is ready to lead this side from the front again. Melbourne can attempt to tag Selwood, but that will only give him more opportunities to milk free kicks. Going under the radar could put a fire in Selwood’s belly. Look out.

Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Round 1 – Margin betting tips

Melbourne Demons

1 – 24 @ $3.50 with Sportsbet

With each team being so powerful and missing equally important players, we’re tipping an intense, close, finals-like match. Melbourne could put its nose ahead just at the finish line.

Geelong Cats

1 – 24 @ $3.50 with Sportsbet

Having beaten the Demons convincingly in the last two outings, Geelong will have the belief to get the result here. Even without Dangerfield, the Cats still have one of the best midfields in the league and have a history of starting seasons off well. A 1-24 point margin – what we’d predict for both sides, is serious value at $3.50.

Melbourne vs. Geelong Rd 1 match predictions

Match Result: Melbourne to win @ $1.92 with William hill
Line Betting: Melbourne + 0.5 @ $1.91 with William Hill

The absence of Patrick Dangerfield tips our hand towards Melbourne in this one. Demons forward Jesse Hogan is more than powerful enough to hold down the forward line without Tom McDonald and Clayton Oliver can lead a hard-nosed midfield. We don’t trust the Cats without its holy trinity all playing together.

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