AFL Power vs. Blues betting, first goal scorer and disposal tips

Friday, April 21, 2017, 7.50pm AEST, Adelaide Oval, watch on Fox Footy, Seven Network

A COUPLE of losses in a row means you can now get Black Caviar odds on Port Adelaide to beat Carlton in Adelaide.

And, trust us, that is seriously good value.

Better than the mighty mare.

Let’s face it, Carlton has plenty of young triers, but there is simply no way it is going to travel to the Adelaide Oval cauldron and beat a Port Adelaide side that looked irresistible in its opening two games and then pushed the two flag favourites in its past two outings.

After an inspiring win in the wet over arch rival Essendon a couple of weeks ago, it was the same on Blue Baggers on the weekend, succumbing to the Gold Coast Suns – in Melbourne.

A disappointing Carlton could not back up after its win, falling 17.6 (108) to 12.10 (82).

A huge seven goal bag from Gold Coast co-captain Tom Lynch proved to much to overcome for the insipid Blues, who actually led at half time, but left the cue in the rack at the main break.

They allowed the Suns to boot seven goals in the third term to just one, effectively ending the contest.

Son of a gun Jack Silvagni led the way with three goals and continues to develop in leaps and bounds, while big fella Levi Casboult also managed a trio of majors.

But another big game from rejuvenated captain Marc Murphy wasn’t enough for the Blues. His 28 disposals led the way for Carlton and, while running defender Sam Docherty reeled in 13 marks on his way to 26 possessions, five Suns players had 29 or more, with Gary Ablett leading the way on 34.

young Blues star Patrick Cripps – still reeling from a broken jaw suffered against Melbourne a couple of weeks ago – appeared sore and was well below what is fast becoming his elite best and could be in doubt for this clash, tipping the scales further in the Power’s favour.

It was ugly viewing for Blues fans, who would have hoped they could capitalise on their inspiring victory over the Bombers a week earlier and leaves them with a mountain to climb against Port Adelaide on Friday night.

Port might have ended up up with a loss north of five goals, but the Power were in it up to their eyeballs for three quarters against GWS in Sydney.

Leading by four points at three quarter time, it did feel like the Power had fired their best shot at the Giants and that proved true, with the expansion club running away with a 31 point win, 16.16 (112) to 11.15 (81), led by big man Jon Patton’s six goals.

Despite most of their prime movers being well down, the Power stuck to the task agains the Giants, with Jasper Pittard leading a low possession count with 24.

Only three other players managed 20 disposals or better, Travis Boak being one of those – and the only multiple goal kicker for the Power with two.

There isn’t a whole lot of intrigue in this match, with the Power likely to spread its wings and record a big win, but the Blues always have eternal hope.

Possession market predictions

Port Adelaide Power: Ollie Wines to have 30 or more disposals ($1.90 with WilliamHill.com.au)

Could the Port Power meatball win a Brownlow one day? Some say Wines has all the necessary tools to claim the AFL’s top individual award. We don’t really care about the Brownlow right now though, we just want him to snare plenty of the footy and he has done that so far this season with three games of 30 possessions of more. Back him to bounce back from the weekend’s disappointment.

Carlton Blues: Bryce Gibbs to have 25 or more disposals ($1.35 with WilliamHill.com.au)

Not the juiciest of odds, but a solid bet none the less. Bryce Gibbs clearly wanted out of Carlton at the end of last season. But his hoped trade to Adelaide was nixed by the Blues and he now appears fully devoted to the cause. Aside from a poor outing against the Suns last week, Gibbs has eclipsed 25 disposals in his three previous clashes and the Blues will need him to do so again if they are going to even get close to the power.

Match predictions

Match result: Port Adelaide Power to win ($1.15 with Sportsbet.com.au)

Line betting prediction: Port Adelaide Power -32.5 ($1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au)

Margin betting prediction: Port Adelaide to win by 40 plus ($2.10 with Sportsbet.com.au)

As we have already said, the Power is the value bet of the round. The Blues looked listless against the Suns on the weekend, while the scoreline against the flag favourites on their home deck did not do Port’s effort justice. This is two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Power feel like they are a genuine second rung premiership contender. The Blues are in full rebuild mode and it will be a few years before you can expect to tip them to win on the road in Adelaide. We like the margin bets in the Port Adelaide affirmative and over 60 might even be an option here. Once the Power get a run on, you can expect them to burn away from the Blues. Make no mistake, the odds feel askew, Port should be $1.01.