Melbourne Storm vs. New Zealand Warriors
MATCH UP STATS
Melbourne Storm vs. New Zealand Warriors
Season record:Melbourne Storm: 6-1New Zealand Warriors: 3-4
Line betting:Melbourne Storm: -9.5 ($1.91 @ Sportsbet)New Zealand Warriors: +9.5 ($1.91 @ Sportsbet)
First try-scorer:Melbourne Storm: Suliasi Vunivalu ($7 @ Crownbet)New Zealand Warriors: Solomone Kata ($18 @ Crownbet)
Tuesday, April 25, 7pm. AAMI Park
THERE can be no better way for the NRL to celebrate ANZAC Day than with an exciting modern rivalry between the Storm and the Warriors.
This will be the 40th game between the two sides. The Storm have a superior head-to-head winning strike rate against most teams in the NRL, but beating the Warriors has rarely been an easy feat.
The Warriors have won 16 of the 39 games played between the rivals, including a couple of key playoff performances, so the Storm, despite being heavy favourites to win on Tuesday, won’t be taking the Warriors cheaply.
In a game which could be seen as an Australia vs. New Zealand ANZAC test preview, the Storm and Warriors will have plenty to prove at AAMI Park on Tuesday and we’ve found the best exotic and try-scoring bets for the big game.
There is star power across the park for both teams which means punters will be wanting some advice on which stars to follow. The Warriors boast a talented back line full of attacking prowess and the Storm will be looking towards their wing men to put some points on the board.
Melbourne Storm first try-scorer tips
1. Billy Slater – $13
2. Suliasi Vunivalu – +600
3. Will Chambers – $14
4. Cheyse Blair – $14
5. Josh Addo- Carr – $7.50
6. Ryley Jacks – $21
7. Cooper Cronk – $15
8. Jesse Bromwich – $26
9. Cameron Smith – $51
10. Jordan McLean – $46
11. Felise Kaufusi – $26
12. Kenneath Bromwich – $26
13. Dale Finucane – $41
It’s almost impossible to go against Suliasi Vunivalu when betting in the try-scoring markets, so we’re not going to. The Fijian flyer has scored four tries this season and he’s one of the team leaders with four line breaks.
A lot of the Storm’s offense is centered around running the ball up the middle before the outside backs get their chance to shine. Vunivalu could take advantage of the Warriors woeful wing defense which has given up plenty of points this season and the $7 on offer at Sportsbet.com.au is a fair price for punters to take.
The biggest threat to Vunivalu will be Josh Addo-Carr, who is starting to find his best form this season after a slow start. Addo-Carr is considered to be one of the fastest players in the NRL and despite a high error count, he’s a player to follow.
The former Tiger has committed nine errors on the wing for the Storm, but he’s currently second in most tries scored for the Storm and we think he will contend the top ranks alongside Vunivalu when the season ends.
Addo-Carr is only paying $7.50 to score first, but we think the $1.72 at CrownBet to score at any time during the game is the best option for punters.
Warriors first try-scoring market and tips
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – $19
2. Blake Ayshford – $15
3. David Fusitua – $18
4. Solomone Kata – +1700
5. Ken Maumalo – $17
6. Kieran Foran – $36
7. Shaun Johnson – $19
8. James Gavet – $91
9. Issac Luke – $46
10. Jacob Lillyman – $91
11. Bodene Thompson – $36
12. Ryan Hoffman – $31
13. Simon Mannering – $41
The return of Ben Matulino to the extended bench makes the Warriors a more complete team this week, but he’s not a try-scoring threat.
The try-scoring threats belong in the backs for the Warriors with the favourite tag belonging to Blake Ayshford, but we can’t see why. Ayshford has picked up his game over the past few weeks, but he’s not a noted try scorer and we think he should be overlooked against the Storm.
We’re favouring Solomone Kata, who is by far the hardest working back for the Warriors. Kata brings a positive attitude to every run and with only one try from six games so far, he’s overdue to score another.
We’re confident Kata can open the scoring at $18, but take the $3.30 to score at any time because that’s a great value price for the rampaging centre.
Another top pick for the Warriors is Shaun Johnson. The star halfback has come under plenty of scrutiny this season for under-performing in his role, but he has scored three tries and his twinkle toes could work their magic.
Johnson has five try assists which is a team high, but he can cross the line to give his team a much-needed boost. Johnson is currently $19 at CrownBet to score first and we think he has a fighting chance.
Storm vs. Warriors game tip
There was plenty to like about the first 40 minutes of the Warriors against the Canberra Raiders last week, but there was nothing to like about the final 40.
The benching of Issac Luke was a head-scratcher for punters of the Warriors and it could mean there’s trouble in the ranks. In order to confidently tip the Warriors, we would need to see some fight and some heart.
We haven’t seen anything close to that yet, therefore we think the Melbourne Storm will be able to control the game early and take it over late.
The Storm know how to grind teams down and playing the frustrated and impatient Warriors will help.
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