Bledisloe Cup tips for Wallabies vs. All Blacks 1st Test

THE Bledisloe Cup and the Rugby Championship kick off this Saturday with New Zealand looking to defend both titles against arch-rivals Australia.

The All Blacks have dominated the Bledisloe Cup for the last decade and online bookmakers are predicting a similar result this year, but the Wallabies aren’t a team that folds up without a fight and this Saturday’s First Test will be key to establishing series dominance.

Australia will host two home matches this series, but that’s hardly a consolation in the eyes of bookies which have the home side as the 16.5-point underdogs to open the series.

The Wallabies have been struggling mightily since the World Cup in 2015 and we are surprised coach Michael Cheika still has a job, but despite his poor record they continue in their “rebuilding” phase which needs to start hitting top gear if they’re to stand a chance.

New Zealand is coming off a tough series draw against the British and Irish Lions where they suffered many key injuries, but All Blacks captain Kieran Read believes his team has taken plenty out of that campaign.

“It’s been a massive learning for us as a group, what we took out of that series around how we need to play this game and how we need to react to pressure,” Read said.

“Hopefully that will show in this championship, and especially these Bledisloe Cup games.”

The Wallabies aren’t backing down in the media, stating they have come together as a team and are capable of pulling off the upset.

“I think the boys believe now more than ever that coming this weekend, we can beat the All Blacks,” said Luke Coleman.

“The growth the team has experienced over the last four weeks, not only physically but mentally.

“That mental resilience, that hard training that we’ve been doing, especially the younger guys experiencing that for their first time, I think it’s paid dividends.”

All Blacks form and why they can win

NZ has lost only one of its last 16 games against Australia (2015) and the last five wins haven’t been competitive affairs.

After losing to Australia in 2015 when going down 27-19, the All Blacks have won by margins of 28, 17, 34, 20 and 27. That is some record and it’s no wonder the bookmakers are giving Australia a decent points start this Saturday.

The Kiwis can be susceptible in the first Test of a series and the rust can often be seen, but with the Lions series only a month in the past they should be fighting fit and ready to take on Australia.

The world’s top-ranked national side has lost two of its last 26 matches, with a loss coming to the Lions and also to Ireland. The latter came in Chicago when the AB’s clocked off thinking they were on holiday, but a return to familiar soil at ANZ Stadium should switch them on.

The All Blacks can win because there is depth in every position. When Dan Carter retired they had Beauden Barrett step into his shoes and perform admirably – they just never stop churning out quality players.

We think the bookmakers have the points spread spot on, but 16.5 is a lot to cover in the first game of a series.

If you don’t mind taking shorter odds, we suggest backing the All Blacks -13.5 ($1.53 at Sportsbet). Covering those few extra points can be tricky at the end of the game and we can see Australia scoring a late consolation try.

Wallabies form and why they can win

It is fair to say the form of the Wallabies has been shocking in recent times and they are struggling to stay relevant in the world rankings.

Since losing to the All Blacks 37-10 in October 2016 they have managed to edge out narrow wins against Scotland (23-22) and France (25-23), but four losses have come since then and none of them inspired any confidence.

An 11-19 loss to the French Barbarians was, to put it nicely, pathetic. It didn’t get better after that, with losses coming to Ireland and England before a much-needed win over Fiji in tough conditions.

A shock loss to Scotland followed in June – one widely dubbed as a fitting result, given the Scots were controversially denied a win over Australia at the Rugby World Cup.

The Wallabies somewhat made amends for that loss when beating Italy 40-27, but they were behind in that game until the last five minutes and it was certainly not a team-building victory.

Why can Australia win this Saturday? Because it’s what Australia does – pull out a victory when least expected to.

Cheika’s men need to start well in this game and put the All Blacks on the back foot. That’s the key to success and the first-half market is where punters can find value.

Australia +7.5 ($1.92 at Sportsbet) is well worth a play as we can see two tight teams fighting for field position in the opening term.

All Blacks vs. Australia – by the numbers

158: The All Blacks have played the Wallabies on 158 occasions, winning 109 with seven draws.

114: Years since the All Blacks and Australia played their first Test. The All Blacks won 22-3 in Sydney – a winning margin of 19 points ($7 at CrownBet.com.au).

423: Number of tries the All Blacks have scored against Australia.

242: Number of tries Australia has scored against New Zealand.

43: Points Beauden Barrett has scored against Australia – the most of any current All Black.

109,874: The biggest crowd between the two teams in a game called “the game of the century”.