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Swans vs. Magpies AFL Friday betting – how many goals for Buddy?

  • MATCH UP STATS

    Sydney Swans vs. Collingwood Magpies

    • Season record:

      Sydney Swans: 0-2
      Collingwood Magpies: 0-2
    • Line betting:

      Sydney Swans: -21.5 ($1.92 @ Sportsbet)
      Collingwood Magpies: +21.5 ($1.92 @ Sportsbet)
    • First goal scorer:

      Sydney Swans: Lance Franklin ($6 @ Sportsbet)
      Collingwood Magpies: Alex Fasolo ($10 @ Sportsbet)

Friday, April 7 from 7.50pm at the Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney. Watch on Seven & Fox Footy.

TALK about pressure.

The 2017 season and a realistic shot at making the finals is on the line for both Sydney and Collingwood this Friday night at the SCG.

Both clubs are winless after the opening fortnight and facing the pressure that comes with the threat of another wasted season.

Collingwood is at crisis point. An honourable defeat to the Western Bulldogs in round 1 was followed by a frustrating loss to fellow middle-of-the-road side Richmond in round 2, triggering talks about the future of coach Nathan Buckley.

The Magpies recruiting, list management, injury management and game plan have been under the microscope – Buckley’s job is on the line and big changes will come if his side doesn’t turn its form around and give Collingwood members a reason to be hopeful about its immediate and long term future.

The Swans are in a tough spot of their own.

A disappointing round 1 defeat to the resurgent Port Adelaide was followed by a close defeat in last week’s grand final re-match against the Western Bulldogs.

Injuries have hit the Swans hard to start 2017 and could seriously threaten to derail its season.

Sydney coach john Longmire will trust that his side can dig themselves out of a 0-2 hole to once again challenge for the premiership, but the revival will have to start very soon.

In addition to our Sportsbet Same Game Multi tips for the match, we’ll take a look at goal-scorers, Buddy Franklin markets, line betting and the winner.

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Buddy Franklin betting for AFL Friday

If there’s one team Lance Franklin likes playing against, it’s Collingwood.

The Sydney champ has averaged four goals and more than 17 disposals a match in his 15 games against the Pies – his highest numbers against any of the 18 sides in the competition.

One of the main bright spots for the Swans in their slow start to the year is Franklin.

Buddy has kicked eight goals from the first two games and almost single-handedly dragged his side off the canvas in a virtuoso performance last week.

When you factor in Collingwood’s massive backline deficiencies and the seeming lack of any kind of match-up for the Sydney danger man, all signs point toward a big night for Franklin.

Buddy is paying $6 to kick the most goals on the night and ambitious punters who believe he can rack up a heap of the ball can get $15 on him to have 30 or more disposals at Sportsbet.com.au.

Magpies vs. Swans pick your own disposals betting

Collingwood:

While the Pies have had their struggles in the opening rounds, racking up disposals has not been one of them.

Collingwood is ranked fifth in the competition in disposals, fifth in handballs and the silver service from ruckman Brodie Grundy (ranked third in hit-outs) has helped Treloar, Pendlebury, Adams win the midfield battle.

With Sydney’s midfield missing some key cogs, we expect the Pies to clock up big numbers again.

So which Magpie is the most likely to rack them up?

We believe Steele Sidebottom represents value in the Pick Your Own Disposals market.

The Magpie midfielder has a habit of slipping under the radar when too much attention is paid to Pendlebury, Treloar and Adams – on a small ground with his elite running power, we believe he can get off the chain.

Sidebottom is paying $3.30 to get 30 or more disposals and a juicy $10 to rack up more than 35 – a feat that the wingman has achieved on a number of occasions.

Sydney:

When Collingwood played Sydney on this ground 12 months ago, the Swans midfield absolutely destroyed their Magpie counterparts en route to an 80-point thumping.

Luke Parker was the hero of the night, gathering 40 disposals.

Can Parker do it again?

The Victorian native is paying $3.30 to get 30 or more disposals, $10 to get 35 or more and to repeat the 2016 performance, he is offering $61.

We know from history that Collingwood would rather put defensive time into Dan Hannebery and Keiran Jack, so Parker, who has had a middling start to the season, could be the standout again.

At those odds, he’s worth a look.

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Sydney vs. Collingwood line and head-to-head tip

While the odds and weight of money points toward a simple Sydney victory, it’s not as simple as that on Friday night.

Sydney is the superior side with better forward and backline depth – but Collingwood’s ruck and midfield edge could make this a closer game than many think.

While the Magpies are missing a couple of key players, the Sydney injury list for the match is alarming. Missing on Friday night will be Kurt Tippett, Isaac Heeney, Jarryd McVeigh, Tom Papley, Dean Rampe and Gary Rohan – arguably six of Sydney’s best 15 players – players that all competed in the 2016 Grand Final.

The pressure is on the Pies – if they don’t respond after a week of intense scrutiny, they never will.

Sydney will still have one eye on the 2017 premiership and a 0-3 start will kill those ambitions.

Expect a thriller.

Line tip: Collingwood +21.5 @ $1.91 with Sportsbet.com.au
Head-to-head tip: Collingwood to win @ $3.75 with Ladbrokes.com.au

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