St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Magpies
MATCH UP STATS
St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Magpies
2018 premiership odds:St Kilda Saints: $1001 @ CrownBet.com.auCollingwood Magpies: $23 @ CrownBet.com.au
Form guide:St Kilda Saints: LDLLLCollingwood Magpies: WWLWL
Round 8 result:St Kilda Saints: Loss to Fremantle, 89-59Collingwood Magpies: Loss to Geelong, 45-66
By Nathan Marotta
Saturday, 19th May, 7:25 pm AEST, Etihad Stadium, Watch on the Seven Network and on the Fox Footy Network.
Eight years ago, these two teams played in one of the greatest Grand Finals in AFL history.
Now they’re just battling to make finals and get back to relevance again.
Collingwood and St Kilda stand toe-to-toe at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night, both trying to ease the pain of frustrated supporter bases.
Things have certainly changed since the epic 2010 Grand Finals between the sides. Collingwood still possesses five of its premiership players including Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Jarryd Blair, Ben Reid and Tyson Goldsack, while for St Kilda Sam Gilbert is the only player remaining.
Since their decline to the bottom half of the ladder earlier in the decade, many expected the Saints to have rebuilt their list and be competing for finals again by now — an assumption that has turned out catastrophically wrong as stalled development and skill issues see the Saints sitting with just one victory after eight games in 2018
Collingwood has shown promise so far this season, has better young players and looks far more competitive in their losses. The Saints will need to put on one of their best performances of the year if they plan on winning on Saturday night.
Collingwood head Coach Nathan Buckley will need to make some big decisions at selection. A number of rookies are making their claims for a debut, while veterans Scott Pendlebury and Ben Reid could also bolster the side.
For the Saints, young midfielder Ed Phillips made his debut last week for the Saints and collected 24 disposals, the most a Saint has accumulated on debut in almost two decades. If he is given another game, he could potentially match up on older brother Tom, who should get up after being inadvertently concussed by teammate Chris Mayne last week.
Phillip’s head was one of the cleanest kicks Mayne has had all season.
Let’s move on now to the tips we think will pay this Saturday.
St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Magpies Round 9 – First to Tips
First Team to 3 Goals
The Magpies have kicked very straight on multiple occasions this season, specifically the match against Brisbane where they kicked 19.7. If the Pies can emulate that style of football this week, the poor Saints will be defending for the entire match. It will be more than just the first three goals that will go the Pies way if they are switched on from the first bounce.
First Team to 6 Behinds
St Kilda Saints @ $2.50 with Sportsbet
Going off the statistics, St Kilda are shocking in front of the big sticks. The Saints have the worst goal accuracy percentage in the league, well behind the Bulldogs who are second worst. If they continue to miss goals, we think they will easily get to six behinds first as we expect the Pies to straighten up their kicking for this contest.
St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Magpies Round 9 – Player Specials Tips
Luke Dunstan to get 25 touches @ $1.45 with William Hill
Coming into the match Luke Dunstan averages 24 touches per game, St Kilda’s fifth best in the category. The common trend in 2018 when teams play the Magpies is that all the opposition midfield numbers are suddenly inflated. Luke Dunstan could potentially get 30 plus in this match, but we decided enough value was in the 25 plus market. As the fourth best midfielder in the team, less attention will be paid to Luke.
A fortnight ago, this young star kicked a massive bag of five goals, including some very late in the last quarter. Out of all the Magpies, de Goey averages the most goals per game. Judging by these facts we think it is a very high chance of Jordan de Goey kicking a couple of goals against the defensively-weak Saints. The best match-up would for Jordan would have been Dylan Roberton, who will unfortunately miss the rest of the season after suffering from a heart condition.
St Kilda Saints vs. Collingwood Magpies Round 9 – Total Match Points Tip
Over @ $2.02 with CrownBet
It will be a rainy and miserable day in Melbourne this Saturday. Luckily the match will be played at Etihad Stadium, which will certainly have the roof closed. Under the roof with no distractions, we think this will be one of the highest-scoring matches in the round. 170 is barely considered a high-scoring match, but the way footy is being played in the modern defensive style, it receives the higher odds.
Saints vs. Magpies Match Predictions
Match Result: Collingwood to win @ $1.33 with Ladbrokes
Line Betting: St Kilda Saints +20.5 with Ladbrokes
In what will be a surprisingly-close match, we believe Collingwood will break away early in the opening quarter, only to have the Saints desperately trying to catch up for the remainder of the encounter. The 20 point line is an attractive bet for the Saints, who will enjoy its home ground advantage. Pies to win by between one to three goals.
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