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Cotchin, Simpson & AFL margin betting – Richmond vs. Carlton, Rd 1


    Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues

    • 2017 finish:

      Richmond Tigers: 3rd, premiers
      Carlton Blues: 16th
    • Form guide:

      Richmond Tigers: 2 JLT victories over Essendon, Nth Melbourne
      Carlton Blues: 2 JLT victories over St Kilda, Hawthorn

By Nathan Marotta

Thursday, 22nd March, 2018, 7:25pm AEST, MCG, Watch on the Seven network and on Fox Footy.

THE wait is finally over.

The MCG will host the opening game of the 2018 AFL season as Richmond unfurls its 2017 premiership flag before beginning its title defence against Carlton.

This blockbuster is expected to attract more than 90,000 fans and could top a home and away attendance record. The Tiger army are more than ready to celebrate their beloved Tigers, who are coming into the match as heavy favourites.

Both clubs are carrying significant injuries as they enter the bout. Richmond may be playing without four premiership players including Daniel Rioli, who misses with the foot injury he sustained during the Grand Final. Nathan Broad is suspended for a making a tit of himself in his post-premiership celebrations, while Bachar Houli and Dion Prestia will both need to complete fitness tests to make the side.

Carlton will be without arguably its best player, Sam Docherty, who suffered an ACL injury in the summer. Jarrod Pickett is also on the sidelines with a wrist fracture.

The Blues will be eager to debut their 2017 #3 draft selection, Paddy Dow. They also have some other new players putting their name in contention for a debut such as Matthew Kennedy, Cam O’shea and Aaron Mullett.

As most opening matches between these sides have played out in recent times, we’re expecting a competitive match that should result in a one-sided victory.

Lets take a look at some betting markets to see where we can get the most bang for our buck.

Sportsbet $501 sign-up bonus

Richmond vs. Carlton total points betting

Over/Under 180.5 points @ -111.11 with Sportsbet – OVER

During the pre-season, it was evident that Richmond would have no trouble scoring. With its unique small forward line where everyone contributes equally, the Tigers picked up where they finished last year, scoring heavily in both matches. Carlton also proved that they can kick goals too. Against a formidable Hawthorn backline, the Blues tallied 102 points. We’re confident in a fast-paced exciting match with plenty of goals for both sides.

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Round 1 – 30 + Disposals tips

Richmond Tigers
Trent Cotchin @ +400 with Sportsbet

The captain of your club is normally the most well-prepared player entering the first match of the season. Trent is going to charge at the footy right form the opening bounce, looking to set the standard for the rest of his team. 30 disposals in the opening match doesn’t sound too far-fetched for a star of the AFL in his prime. With Carlton expected to put a lot of time into teammate Dustin Martin, Cotchin should get off the chain.

Carlton Blues

Kade Simpson @ $5.00 with Sportsbet

The ball will spend a majority of the match in Carlton’s backline, meaning Kade Simpson will be in the thick of the action. Kade is a veteran of the Navy Blue and with teammate Sam Docherty injured, we’re expecting him to have an expanded role as the Blues use his run and clean ball-use by foot.

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Round 1 – Margin tips

Richmond Tigers

25 + @ $1.67 with Sportsbet

As the reigning premiers, Richmond will look to start the season on a high note by getting some early percentage against a rival Victorian team. The likes of Dustin Martin and Alex Rance are far too powerful for the youthful Carlton squad. A grotesque margin is likely to occur in this season opener.

Carlton Blues

1-24 @ $6.00 with Sportsbet

It would be classic Richmond to lead the whole match, just to have it taken away in the final minutes of the game during such a big occasion for the club. Although this is the new Richmond, you can never rule out a premiership hangover.

Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues Match Predictions

Match Result: Richmond to win @ $1.19 with Crownbet
Line Betting: Richmond -29.5 @ -108.7 with Crownbet

The massive crowd and the significance of the match is going to provide an interesting atmosphere for both clubs. We suspect that Richmond is going to celebrate its premiership in true style in front of a record opening round crowd. The young Blues could put up a fight, but will eventually be overwhelmed by the occasion and its opposition.