Collingwood vs. Hawthorn first goal & disposal betting tips

Saturday, May 20, 2017, 7.25pm AEST, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Watch on Fox Footy, Seven Network.

HAWTHORN might have beaten Brisbane handsomely on the weekend, but they have paid a hefty price.

Superstar Cyril Rioli will miss up to three months with PCL injury, key defender James Frawley will spend two months on the sidelines and they will be without rugged back man Ben Stratton for up to six weeks.

Add Grant Birchall to that list and you have some serious injury woes for a Hawks team that has actually been ok since a torrid start to the season.

With three wins in their last four, the former super power had begun to look a little like its old self, but this will be a true test against a Collingwood side that is smarting after yet another honourable loss.

The Pies looked to be home against Greater Western Sydney – until their tormentor Steve Johnson bobbed up with the match winner in a three point victory, 15.12 (102) to 15.9 (99).

Taylor Adams was again among the Pies best, his clearance skill and tackling a feature as he collected 30 disposals, while Jeremy Howe had 26 in the backline and midfield Rolls Royce Daniel Wells had 24.

Jamie Elliott and Steele Sidebottom provided a small, but effective one-two punch up front with three goals each.

Aside from all the injuries, the Hawks’ win over Brisbane was about as regulation as they come.

They led at every change in a 17.11 (113) to 11.9 (75) victory that was propelled by three goals to Adelaide recruit Ricky Henderson and two each to Jarryd Roughead, Isaac Smith and Tim O’Brien.

Prized recruit Tom Mitchell had a monster in the middle, reeling in 36 possessions, 10 more than any other Hawk on the ground.

First goal scorer tips

Collingwood Magpies

Darcy Moore ($13 with Sportsbet.com.au)

Poor old Darcy Moore. You can’t say the kid is out of form, because he has never really been in form. But gee, he could use a big body like Travis Cloke next to him in that forward line. Never the less, whether he is up to it or not, he has been tasked with being the number one forward at Collingwood and perhaps he will grow into the role. Moore actually made his debut against the Hawks in Round One of 2015 and has not played against them since. He gets another chance tomorrow and, after going goal less against GWS, he has a much easier task against the Hawks’ depleted backline missing three of its best defenders.

Hawthorn Hawks

Tim O’Brien ($14 with Sportsbet.com.au)

The high leaping carrot top has gone ahead of blond bombshell James Sicily as the man most likely to lead the Hawks’ forward line into the future. A combination of aerial skills, athleticism, strong hands and a great kicking technique gives O’Brien all the tools to be successful at AFL level. He’s taken a while to really get going, but he belongs and has become a focal point of Hawthorn’s attack, especially given the well documented struggles of the likes of Gunston and Breust. Big odds for a big fella.

Player disposal tips

Collingwood Magpies:

Scott Pendlebury to have 30 or more disposals ($2 with Sportsbet.com.au)

Forget about the Collingwood captain’s form. He simply loves playing against the Hawks. He gets 30 touches and Brownlow votes against them almost every time he plays. And, after registering just 22 disposals against the Giants on the weekend, he will be breathing fire. After his Anzac Day stinker, he put the Cats to the sword with 33 possessions and we expect him to do the same agains the Hawks this weekend. Even money is so juicy.

Hawthorn Hawks:

Ryan Burton to have 25 or more disposals ($2.63 with Sportsbet.com.au)

This kid is finally starting to realise he has what it takes to play at AFL level. And the Hawks are the beneficiaries. With all their injuries, Burton should be a huge part of the Hawks’ engine room agains the Pies. He’s a brute of a kid with plenty of love for finding the inside footy and, after 23 two weeks ago and then 25 against the Lions on the weekend, he is slowly building. It’s not a fait accompli at those odds, but the $2.63 is worth a flutter as an interest bet.

Match predictions

Match result: Collingwood Magpies to win ($1.72 with Sportsbet.com.au)

Line betting: Collingwood Magpies -12.5 ($1.92 with Sportsbet.com.au)

While we wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks beat the Pies, given the even nature of the competition and the past encounters between these two clubs, we just can’t tip them. Already a struggler after losing the likes of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis in the off season, the huge injuries to key players makes them heavy outsiders in our eyes. It will be interesting to see what sort of side Alastair Clarkson rolls out against the Pies. Our money is on debutants to fill the void left by their stars and that surely puts the Pies in the box seat. Collingwood has been close on a number of occasions this season, without being able to get the job done. That is symptomatic of the club under Nathan Buckley. We think the Pies bounce back and win this one and probably win it well.