Cats vs. Bulldogs AFL Friday betting tips & player specials

HOW the mighty have fallen.

After opening the season with five straight wins, Geelong are in disarray.

Last weekend’s shock loss to Essendon in the AFL Country Game completed a hat-trick of defeats against teams they would have expected to beat.

Most concerning for Cats coach Chris Scott is how much hungrier the Bombers were around the contests.

Although Geelong had more clearances, contested possessions and inside 50s, they were smashed 81 to 40 in the tackle count.

The Dons had seven players finish with five tackles or more, whereas there were five Cats – four of them defenders – who did not register a single one.

Without Lachie Henderson, who should be back this week from a chest injury, the defence failed utterly to contain Joe Daniher and company.

Geelong could still have snatched it as the Bombers tired late, but a return of six goals and six behinds in the final quarter saw them fall well short in the end.

The Western Bulldogs were also left ruing wasted opportunities.

Despite a frenetic fightback in the last quarter, some iffy finishing and questionable decision-making from the visitors allowed the similarly inaccurate West Coast Eagles to hold on for an eight-point win at Subiaco.

Yet there were plenty of positives for a Dogs side missing several key players.

Jack Redpath booted three goals on his long-awaited return to AFL football, while Lukas Webb showed signs of promise with a brace in his first senior start of the year.

There were strong performances again from Jack Macrae, Jason Johannisen and Caleb Daniel, who was involved in just about everything as the Bulldogs turned up the heat in the second half.

Coach Luke Beveridge could have several big names back in the frame for Friday’s jaunt down the Princes Highway.

Beloved captain Robert Murphy should play after missing the trip west with general soreness, while Jordan Roughead is expected to reclaim his ruck spot.

Also in the mix are Travis Cloke and Dale Morris, subject to the results of fitness tests this week.

Given Redpath’s efforts in round eight, however, there is no guarantee Cloke will make the 22 even if he is deemed fit to play.

First goalscorer tips

Steven Motlop – +1200 at Sportsbet

Tom Hawkins and Daniel Menzel are the favourites for Geelong, but we like Motlop to get out of the blocks early after a few ordinary weeks. The number 32 has not kicked multiple goals in a game since round four, so he will have to start delivering either more scoreboard pressure or far better disposal counts to justify his place in the team.

Jack Redpath – +850 at Sportsbet

Big Jack could not have done much more in his first game back in the seniors after a third knee reconstruction. He followed up his bag of six in the VFL with three well-taken goals against the West Coast, including the opener. With Tom Lonergan and the Cats defence struggling to lock down good, strong forwards, he is a real chance to strike early.

Disposal betting

Zach Tuohy 30+ – +275 at Sportsbet

The Irishman had perhaps his worst night of the year last Saturday, failing to lay a single tackle as Anthony McDonald-Tipingwuti and Orazio Fantasia ran riot in the Essendon forward line. But he is a noted user off half-back, averaging over 26 touches per game, and could benefit from the Dogs’ haphazard delivery as both Elliot Yeo and Shannon Hurn did last week.

Jack Macrae 30+ – +100 at Sportsbet

After a few somewhat subdued performances earlier in the season, the Doggies’ number 11 has now racked up 30 touches or more in back-to-back games. He was good against the Eagles without perhaps influencing the game the way Daniel or Johannisen did – but creativity and kick-to-handball ratios do not mean much when you bet on the AFL disposals markets, do they?

Cats vs. Bulldogs match tip

Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points – +125 at Sportsbet

While both teams are five wins and three losses, there is no question about which is playing the better footy. Henderson’s likely return should bolster a wobbly Geelong defence, but the Bulldogs’ pressure game and midfield balance should serve them well with a few important players back in action.