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AFL Thursday Collingwood vs. Richmond, Pendlebury vs. Martin tips

  • MATCH UP STATS

    Collingwood Magpies vs. Richmond Tigers

    • Season record:

      Collingwood Magpies: 0-1
      Richmond Tigers: 1-0
    • Line betting:

      Collingwood Magpies: -3.5 @ Sportsbet.com.au
      Richmond Tigers: +3.5 @ Sportsbet.com.au

WE’RE in the first game of round 2, and already we’ve got our first season-defining match for both Richmond and Collingwood.

Both Thursday night combatants entered the 2017 season with head coaches under fire. Damien Hardwick and Nathan Buckley need to produce results, or they’ll find themselves browsing through job websites in 2018.

While both clubs chase the same ladder positions in the bottom half of the eight come season’s end, it’s games like this that will make or break those ambitions.

Collingwood, coming off a gutsy, yet frustrating loss to the Western Bulldogs in round 1 will go into the match as favourite against a Richmond side which did what it had to do over one of the wooden spoon favourites, Carlton.

Each side had its hero in round 1 and it’s these two players which will cop the bulk of the attention from coaches, opposition players, fans and punters this week.

Scott Pendlebury and Dustin Martin.

Pendlebury, the Collingwood captain, shrugged off any doubts on his fitness and put in one of the classic performances that has made him one of the game’s most consistent and extraordinary footballers over the last 10 years – gathering 39 disposals and kicking two goals – just like we tipped in our preview.

Martin was a beast against a hapless Carlton, gathering 34 disposals, kicking four goals and assisting in a few more. Dusty took his game to a more consistent level in 2016, resulting in a third-place in the Brownlow count – if he continues these kinds of numbers against better opposition this year, he’ll take the medal outright.

Beat Collingwood and Richmond can start to get excited about the season ahead. It’s midfield looks to have more depth, the Tigers look faster across the ground and the Richmond faithful has their tails up. Lose and it’ll be a crash back down to reality.

This is a must-win match for Collingwood. After showing they could match the premiers last week, Buckley’s men need to show consistency and improvement against a lesser side. If the Magpies lose to Richmond they’ll be 0-2 with games against the Swans and Saints (both away) to follow. It’ll be crisis control for Nathan Buckley yet again.

Our preview will focus on the super stars in question, disposal markets, goal-scorers and we’ll have a look at line betting and the winner.

God help the loser.

Sportsbet AFL specials

Pendlebury and Martin disposal betting – who’s the better bet?

The market we think gives value at Sportsbet is the 30 or more disposals field.

Collingwood

Is Pendlebury the best to gather more than 30 disposals for the Pies?

Yes, but at $1.72, it’s only a bet you’re going to want to throw in a multi.

Pendlebury has proven to be un-taggable and while he’s in this kind of form, he can get his disposals both inside and outside of stoppages.

With Adam Treloar, Steele Sidebottom and Taylor Adams all posing a threat to opposition midfields, Pendlebury is likely to ride team success, given that his teammates like to give him the ball because his disposal can be trusted – something you can’t say for many Magpies.

Get on Pendlebury for over 30 touches with confidence.

Richmond

Will Martin repeat his performance from Round 1 against the Magpies?

No.

But he’ll still get plenty of the pill

Martin won’t have it all his own way against the Magpies, which has a more hardened and mature midfield brigade and you can bet that the Pies will put more time into the man with the neck tattoos, given the way he shredded the Blues.

Martin averages 26 possessions against Collingwood and has notched 34 and 30 in his last two games against the club.

We think he will get more than 30 disposals, but at $1.57 in this market isn’t to our liking.

We suggest Dion Prestia can get under the Collingwood guard if they pay too much attention to Dusty – he’s paying $2.50 to have more than 30 disposals.

Who provides value in Magpies vs. Tigers first goal betting?

Richmond:

Trust in Jack.

Riewoldt has a bizarre ability to kick the first goal in matches and has led that quirky statistic for Richmond for the last three years.

You know he’s going to start forward. You know he’s going to be a prominent target and you know that he can do it at ground level and in the air.

At $8 with Sportsbet.com.au he’s a touch skinny, but no other Tiger calls out to us in this market.

Collingwood:

In the Round 2 fixture between these sides last year, Alex Fasolo was a clear best-on-ground, kicking six goals in the Magpies’ last-gasp win.

After registering 3.3 in the loss to the Bulldogs last week, Fasolo has proven he’s in form, will get opportunities and likes to play the Tigers.

Fasolo is paying $10 at Sportsbet to kick the first goal and as a stay-at-home forward that’s hard to match up on, he’s hard to go past.

Sportsbet.com.au bonus betting

Who wins the game between Richmond and Collingwood?

While the Magpies have a decisive advantage according to punters, this is no easy game to pick.

Richmond are on a high after a bright start and have a full list to choose from. Collingwood have some injury concerns and will come into the game with more pressure and more doubt.

The ruck duel between Brodie Grundy and Tiger Toby Nankervis could be telling – whichever midfield gets better service in stoppages could gain dominance.

We’re tipping a close one in wet conditions.

Line tip: Collingwood -3.5 @ $1.90 with Sportsbet.com.au
Margin tip: Collingwood under 39.5 @ $2.40 with Sportsbet.com.au
Head-to-head tip: Collingwood @ $1.75 with Sportsbet.com.au

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