AFL Round 1 Magpies vs. Bulldogs, Cloke & Moore odds & free tips

Friday, March 24 from 7.40pm at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.

THEY don’t come much bigger than this in Round 1 of a new AFL season.

Fresh off one of the greatest fairytale premierships in the league’s history, the Western Bulldogs will begin its flag defence in 2017 against a Collingwood Football Club, out to break a three-year finals drought.

While the respective campaigns in the 2016 season would suggest this should be a one-sided affair, there’s more to this game than meets the eye.

Incase a match between the biggest sporting club in the country and the reigning premier was not big enough, there’s a number of subplots at play.

After a much-publicised trade in the offseason, former Magpie premiership player Travis Cloke will play his first game for the Western Bulldogs against the club he gave 12 years of service to.

Cloke struggled at Collingwood in 2016 and after being dropped to the VFL on three separate occasions, the writing was on the wall for the 30-year-old. The Bulldogs, looking for forward depth and a big marking forward, were only too happy to swoop in.

All eyes will be on Cloke – who is paying $12 to kick the first goal of the match at Sportsbet.com.au – and how he deals with the added pressure. As a proven match-winner, he could come back to haunt his old club, or provide Dogs fans with a new level of frustration.

In two encounters in 2016, the Bulldogs beat the Magpies twice at both the MCG and Etihad Stadium, by 21 and 3 points respectively – in fact, the recent form sits with Luke Beveridge’s men, who have beaten the Magpies in their last four encounters.

Collingwood can’t be dismissed. Boasting the top-rated midfield in the competition, the Woodsmen are one of the only teams in the competition that will claim to match and even beat the premiers in the engine room. With the Bulldogs suffering injuries to its ruck department, Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy looms as a vital player and one for punters to keep an eye on – if he can give his small men first use and be a factor around the ground, the Dogs are in trouble.

Our match preview will cover betting for head-to-head, line, first goal-scorer and pick your own disposal markets.

Collingwood vs. Western Bulldogs first goal-scorer betting

Bulldogs:

There’s going to be one giant target the Bulldogs look for in the high-intensity opening to the game.

There’s one man who could be crucial to the result, especially if he gets off to a hot start.

Travis Cloke.

We’re going for the obvious bet that will break Magpies’ spirits early and be the dramatic opening that commentators dream of.

At $12 with Sportsbet.com.au, Cloke, who is expected to play deep forward, is value – as long as he doesn’t mark the ball 20 metres out, directly in front of goal.

Magpies:

Without Cloke, the Magpie forward line looks faster and a lot more unpredictable in 2017.

But there is one man in the black and white who has made a habit of kicking goals against the Bulldogs in a short career.

Darcy Moore.

Moore, paying $12 at Sportsbet.com.au, has played just three matches against the Bulldogs for a return of 11 goals – including a match which he left the field early after suffering injury.

Moore is the kind of forward the Dogs have had trouble defending over the last 24 months – quick, mobile and tall.

He’s a beautiful set-shot and will be desperate to make the Collingwood forward half his own in Cloke’s absence.

Pick your own disposal betting tips for Bulldogs and Magpies

With two clubs that have stacked midfields and a number of disposal accumulators in play, picking the leaders in this stat field is no easy feat, but we look to history and form to make our decisions.

Bulldogs:

The man that Collingwood have been happy to go un-tagged and left to his own devices in its last three encounters is Luke Dahlhaus.

Dahlaus has notched 33, 37 and 32 disposals in his last three games against the black and white stripes and while the majority of punters will focus their attention on bigger names like Bontompelli, Liberatore and Hunter, we believe Dahlaus represents value.

Collingwood will go into the match without a tagger and is likely to go ‘head-to-head’ with the Bulldogs midfield – so expect a number of players to get high disposal numbers – a point punters can take advantage of in the ‘pick your own disposal’ market.

Dahlaus is paying $3 to gather more than 30 disposals at Sportsbet.com.au.

Magpies:

Look no further than the Collingwood captain in round 1.

After a strong pre-season in which the elite midfielder ‘didn’t miss a session’ of training, Scott Pendlebury sent shockwaves through the Collingwood camp in its last practice match when he was withdrawn from the game with achilles soreness.

Pendlebury was quick to shut down any talk of any seriousness to the ailment, but importantly for punters, a bit of doubt lingers over the midfield gun.

Pendlebury is fit and firing and paying $2.10 to get more than 30 disposals on Friday night.

If there was no ‘fitness cloud’ hanging over the Magpie skipper, who makes a habit of delivering in big games like this one, he’d be paying $1.40.

Take Pendlebury on his word – he’s trained strongly for two weeks – and take the $2.10 on offer at Sportsbet.com.au.

Will the Bulldogs or Magpies win the round 1 game?

Our head says the Bulldogs will be too good for a Collingwood side that may look decent on paper, but is yet to prove they can stand up to the pressure cooker and beat a good side.

But our gut says there’s a number of factors that make Collingwood the value bet of the night.

Both sides suffer from key injuries, but the Bulldog’s ruck issues could be the opening the Magpies crave.

The unknown factor is how the Bulldogs will deal with the pressure of being the reigning premier. Will a premiership hangover linger over 2017, the same way it has lingered over other clubs who have broken long premiership droughts?

Call us crazy, we’re going for an upset on Friday night footy.

Our tip: Collingwood to win, 1-39 margin, paying $3.40 @ Sportsbet.com.au